PAK::AFFAIRS

By: Nasir Aziz

It’s official! Pakistan is under Emergency rule now as of November 3rd, 2007, which I term as “Martial Law Lite”. Lots of disagreements will emerge about this new situation in Pakistan around the world and within Pakistan. In order to understand the growing concerns and confusion in Pakistani politics and the state of affairs in general, it will be easy to start with two contextually qualified assumptions:

1. Pakistan technically is at war
2. Pakistan has been under some sort of Martial Law since the events of September 11th, 2001

In addition to these, I will briefly touch upon some historical events that lead up to the current situation in Pakistan.

The so-called “War on Terror” and Pakistan’s compromising position after the events of September 11th, 2001 creates a situation that we are witnessing in Pakistan nowadays. Pakistan, as we know it now was threatened by the US in a rhetorical sense and maybe so in real sense, and then the subsequent hunt for Osama Bin Laden and direct attacks on Afghanistan puts Pakistan in a state of war. Osama Bin Laden, as purported by the western media and other vested interest parties’ claim that he is hiding within territorial Pakistani region of FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) that borders Afghanistan, a porous border technically and culturally. Some of the tribes do not even agree with the notion of a border here. This is due to the complex history of this region and a left over mess by the British Colonialists – a subject for another day.

Regardless Osama Bin Laden’s presence has never been proven with any confidence or proper geo-coordinates. Based on faulty or “cooked” up intelligence US warplanes targeted alleged terrorists camps inside Pakistani borders in FATA region, which then Musharraf’s government had to cover up by sending Pakistani Forces after the fact and show some presence. Due to the nature of such events, this puts Pakistan in a state of war, ironically with the “ally” and with its own people living in FATA. Pakistani ally belligerently disrespects its sovereignty by attacking inside with consequential affects of anger and fury against both the US and Pakistani Administration by the locals.

Musharraf caught in the middle of this has been trying to strike a balance by appeasing its people and at the same time keeping NATO and US off the limits from entering Pakistani territory. It’s tough to be in Musharraf’s shoes at this point where he is trying to hold the country’s dignity in place and yet not agitate a wounded bear, the US. Add political complexity of Pakistan, a diverse social and cultural fabric, and a hugely divided society of 160 million people – now you have a ticking time bomb. In my opinion this time bomb is nearing its explosion time.

During Russian War in Afghanistan in 1970s and 1980s, US supported the fundamentalist Mujahideens in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. A proxy war fought on the borders of Pakistan and inside Afghanistan between the US and the former USSR gave birth to a highly trained and skilled fighters in that region which proved effective against Russian Forces in a non-conventional and a-symmetric warfare which lead to Russian pullout and consequently its break-up. As far as the US was concerned the mission was accomplished and the Cold War was over. In a joyous and victorious mood, US turned its back on Afghanistan and Pakistan as the job was now done and these countries were of no special interest anymore. A war torn Afghanistan and bruised Pakistan were now on their own to rise from the rubbles, not to mention the social implications of 3+ million Afghan refugees that were left there for Pakistan to support without much of the outside help.

Soon after General Zia, the then true military dictator of Pakistan dies in a suspicious air crash along with other American Personnel with him. Benazir (Zardari) Bhutto comes to power and faces new challenges regarding Afghanistan. The trained Mujahideens and fundamentalists in nature were then asserting their rule in Afghanistan and FATA regions of Pakistan. These destroyed regions were up for grabs by the mighty ones. To counter the Mujahideens and the ongoing civil war in Afghanistan after Russian pullout resulted in the birth of Taliban. Most of them broke ranks with Tribes, and in some cases with Mujahideens to create their own cohesive group to take over Afghanistan under supervision and support by then Benazir Bhutto’s Government.

Fast forward to September 2001 and then 2007 – this new violence in Pakistani neighborhood yet again helped the more radical elements to resurrect and come out of hiding with a new enemy in sight and a newly formed enemy: aka Musharraf regime that sides the US willingly or not in “War on Terror”. Considering their skills and previous training, and not to mention the possession of advanced weaponry, these elements are now giving tough time both to the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, and more recently to Pakistani Forces. Also the siege of Red Mosque in Islamabad and later the raid by Pakistani Forces to eliminate the growing command center of these radicals did not help the situation. Outcome was the recent wave of terrorist attacks against Pakistani civilians and now the Pakistani Forces proved to be tipping point yet again in Pakistan’s growing unrest and frustration.

Around the same time, the province of ^[2][4]Baluchistan turned into a hotbed for separatists and a new strong hold of Talibans. Both these elements may have joined hands against the Pakistani Government as they now have a common enemy. Baluchistan is strategically very important to Pakistan, as it borders Iran, is mineral, oil and gas rich, nuclear test site for Pakistani Nuclear program, and more recently has opened the world’s deepest Sea Port in coastal town of Gawadar which serves both Naval and Commercial purposes. Additionally this port sits on the mouth of Persian Gulf – an area of utmost importance to world economy where most of the Middle Eastern oil channels through and distributed all over the world.

China lent its technical know-how for building this port and now has a possible strategic ^[1]Naval presence there, a new development that does not please the West and especially the US. This starts up another front against China’s rising influence and Pakistan’s willingness and full support for Chinese by accommodating this strategic alliance. China wants to use Baluchistan coast for monitoring the Persian Gulf and subsequently wants to tap into upcoming Iran-Pakistan Oil Pipeline that will eventually go all the way to India. ^[3]The instability in Baluchistan in essence serves limited US interests and may well have been foreign sponsored to scare away the Chinese from this region and keep it off limits and hard for building the Iran-Pakistan Oil Pipeline.

The reason I am going to this depth and all over the place is to bring up the issues that Pakistan is facing today and how Musharraf is handling all of this while trying to keep the country intact. As you can see the government is facing tough challenges in most of the country. Baluchistan and NWFP provinces are in a state of war, Kashmir another war front but seeing a surprising calm as relationships between India and Pakistan are improving is not directly effected with current ongoing crisis. Essentially 60% of territorial Pakistan is chaotic and at the brink of collapse, if not already.

In nineties the previous alternate “democratic” governments of Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Zardari Bhutto that were brought in power by state sponsored rigging failed the country and its people in all respects. These impotent and ineffective corrupt governments widely based on self-interest at their helm at one point brought Pakistan to an official “Failed State” and “Most Corrupt” status. Pakistan’s image and credibility was deeply affected all over the world. The nineties were probably the most degrading and embarrassing moments in the history of Pakistan.

And recently consistently deteriorating law and order situation, the rise in terrorism, activities by anti-state elements and unrealistic efforts by the self-interest “democracy” ideologues in Pakistan have created a situation that needs to be addressed and handled sooner rather than later. Also the growing speculation of US attacking Iran, another important neighbor of Pakistan is not helping the situation. This is adding fuel to the fire within Pakistan especially among the fundamentalist and anti-American elements. A new phenomena is emerging where Pakistani moderates, which in essence is the majority of Pakistan are having second thoughts about supporting US or have anything to do with it. They are distancing themselves from government’s support of US interests in the region or in general. This is a very dangerous and un-intended development.

The overall situation and regional complexities are in full effect and have to be dealt with one way or another. Judiciary is acting in a fashion as we are living in peace times and is being naive about current geo-political context. Musharraf in my opinion seems sincere to Pakistan and shows it, but who knows. There are many theories about his interests, but one thing for sure that he has interest in Pakistan’s unity, a nuclear power, and doesn’t seem to be under any US pressure or influence as many political or social circles may think.

The current chaos in Pakistan requires a strong hand to take care of terrorists, some extra-judicial force against miscreants and foreign elements that have infiltrated inside for recruiting terrorists and disrupting Pakistan’s progress. Also under current law and order and security concerns “fair” or any type of elections are not realistically possible. At this point Musharraf’s legitimacy as the next president of Pakistan is probably not the biggest of issues to be dealt with. The first and top most priority is the security of Pakistan inside and from the outside anti-state elements. Yes, during such times some powers are and will be abused but overall will prove effective to curb the ongoing chaos in Pakistan.

Another wild card here is Benazir Bhutto’s US$1.5 Billion corruption charges pending in Supreme Court of Pakistan, which Musharraf planned to drop in an extra judicial fashion. The latest information coming out of Supreme Court prior to getting sacked was that she will be tried. So basically Musharraf and Benazir both were about to get in some sort of legal trouble that would have killed all of their power sharing plans. Most media, and especialy western media is not highlighting this fact at the moment.

Time will be the judge. It is evident that some more tough times are coming for Pakistan and especially for Musharraf. Historically Pakistan has been through many crisis and has overcome those. This may go down as yet another one in country’s history. Hopefully the last one!

Pakistan Zindabad!

Sources:

^[1]Gwadar: China’s Naval Outpost on the Indian Ocean
^[1]China’s pearl in Pakistan’s waters
^[2]The Indian Ocean Region
^[3]Baluchistan and the Coming Iran War
^[4]How serious is Baluch insurgency..?